(The article was originally published in Indian Express as a part of Dr Ram Madhav’s column titled Ram Rajya on October 24, 2026. Views expressed are personal.)
Six years ago, when the US President elections took place in November 2020, fans of Donald Trump in India were going to the temples praying for his victory for a second term. He lost that election and accused the Democrats of stealing the mandate. There were many in USA who believed in Trump’s accusations. There were some in India too, who sympathised with him and believed that he was probably wronged by the Left-Liberal cabal. Four years later, when Trump registered a thumping victory in 2024, many watchers of US-India relations sincerely believed that a golden age would return in the bilateral relations.
But the last two years proved to be a big disappointment not only for the admirers of Trump in India but also for the pragmatic geopolitical analysts. Trump resorted to unprecedented weaponisation of trade. Trump regime’s pressure tactics on India subjecting it to harsh tariffs for its energy imports from Russia; Trump’s inexplicable bonhomie with Pakistan, the global epicentre of terrorism and an arch enemy of India; Republican obsession with immigration issues impacting Indian experts serving in USA under H1-B visa regime; and the occasional racist outbursts using offending phrases, like vice president J D Vance’s latest statement calling H1-B visa holders as ‘indentured labour’ – all these have resulted in compounded unease, if not outright distrust, against the country once described as a “natural ally”. The result is, when the US is heading for midterms next week, there is hardly any support or sympathy for Trump in India. On the contrary, many sneeringly predict that the Republicans would lose majority in both the House and the Senate.
It was the brinkmanship of Trump that brought the US – India relationship, assiduously built over last 25 years, to this situation. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the US in February last year to greet the newly elected president, he carried an ambitious agenda about what the foreign ministry mandarins call as the “US-India Compact”. Defence, trade, critical and emerging technologies, nuclear energy, critical minerals, space and Indo-Pacific affairs – many such areas were on the table.
But in the last twenty odd months, the relationship witnessed enormous trust deficit. The US was a party to the disruption caused to critical energy supply routes like the Hormuz through its war against Iran. That war plunged the whole world into a major energy crisis. Oil production from the Middle East continues to be down by around four million barrels a day. Almost two billion barrels of oil production have been forfeited due to various reasons including destruction of oil fields in drone attacks. China, the major energy guzzler in the world, is feverishly importing oil from available sources putting more pressure on the energy market. The resultant severe energy crisis drove inflation levels soaring in many European countries. It acted as a catalyst for the people, already aggrieved by high food prices, stagnant wages and unaffordable housing costs, to come onto the streets in several European cities. If India was able to thwart such a crisis, it was primarily due to the foresight of its leadership in ensuring energy security for its 1.4 billion people through energy imports from Russia besides other sources. The Congress and the White House seek to punish India for the same.
Sadly, the double standards are too stark to be missed. While threatening India with 100 percent punitive tariffs, the US Congress was busy granting waivers and exemptions to its European allies. Worse still was US’ own agreement with the same Russia earlier this month for the import of 36 million barrels of diesel in the name of lowering domestic fuel prices. What is good for the goose is not good for the gander?
Despite such serious disappointments, all is not lost between India and the US. Bilateral trade has grown by 12 percent in 2025 to reach $ 240 billion. The defence partnership is robust and growing. Major American AI companies pledged close to $ 70 billion investments in India. On the day the US grabbed headlines by attacking Iran, on February 28, 2025, the real headline should have been the opening of US chip giant Micron’s first assembly and test facility in India. Cooperation is substantially growing in space, critical technologies and minerals and intelligence sharing. There is an overt downturn in the relations for sure, but beneath the surface, there is optimism for collaborative progress too prompting Ambassador Gor to predict $ 500 billion bilateral trade by 2030.
We will know the verdict of the people of the US over Trump’s two years on November 3 when the results of the midterm elections come out. But what the world thinks about it was firmly conveyed by prime minister Modi recently – the “weaponisation of trade, technology and sea routes” must stop.
