A storm is brewing in the Indian Ocean Region

(The article was originally published in Indian Express on February 28, 2026 as a part of Dr Madhav’s column titled ‘Ram Rajya’. Views expressed are personal.)

Until a few years ago, we believed that the world’s worst trouble spot will be in the Western Pacific due to the exploding firestorm between the Western powers and China over Taiwan Straits, and South and East China Sea. World witnessed aggressive political rhetoric against China by Trump and Biden administrations, which was matched by deployment of American naval assets in great numbers in the volatile region. As many as 12 to 15 warships, that included 3-4 aircraft carriers, a similar number of destroyers and a few other vessels converted the region between China and Japan into a de facto war zone.

Last few years witnessed several incidents of face-off between the navies of the US and China in the waters around Taiwan. These included shadowing, unsafe manoeuvring dangerously close to each other’s vessels, and, occasionally, obstructing the path forcing one of the vessels to alter course. All this led to the world into believing that South China Sea would witness a major conflict sooner than later.

But Trump in his second terms talks less about Taiwan and South China Sea. It now appears that the world’s worst flashpoints have shifted from the Western Pacific to the Indian Ocean. The US has mobilised a massive military build-up around Iran, described by experts as the greatest build up in last two decades. If that mobilisation is any indication, Iran is going to be the new global flashpoint. While the nuclear talks between the US and Iran are underway at Geneva, powerful aircraft carriers like USS Gerald R Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln moved into Gulf of Oman and Eastern Mediterranean respectively, accompanied by a dozen or more guided missile destroyers and an unknown number of submarines. The US Air Force fortified its major bases in Bahrain and Jordan by deploying hundreds of military aircraft in combat ready conditions.

It is evident that more than the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean Region is heating up now. The deployment of US’ military assets from the Arabian Sea to the Persian Gulf to Gulf of Oman to the Mediterranean Sea converted this entire region into an active theatre of war. In his State of the Union Address earlier this week, Trump stated that “my preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy. But one thing is certain — I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon. Can’t let that happen”. Referring to Operation Midnight Hammer, the US’ attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in June last year, Trump complained that although “we wiped it out, they want to start all over again”.  Meanwhile in Geneva, the US representatives – Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff including – are reportedly insisting that nothing short of Iran giving up its enrichment activities in all the nuclear plants including Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan would be acceptable. Incidentally, these third round of negotiations are supposed to be the last, the failure of which might lead to war.

It is no secret that any conflict over Iran would not be a limited one. It will drag the entire Indian Ocean Region into the whirlpool. Iran’s dogged resistance to US pressures, which Trump’s special representative Witkoff described as “frustrating” for the President, indicates that the former has its own plans in case war broke out. It conducted joint naval exercises with Russia recently in the Arabian Sea. While Israel will be a willing partner of the US in any conflict involving Iran, Iran could drag countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan, that house important US military bases and assets, also into it.

Meanwhile, Trump is raking up the Deigo Garcia issue and insisting that the UK should not agree to hand the sovereignty over Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Under the agreement signed by Mauritius and UK in May last year, the UK government would cede sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius while Mauritius would lease back Diego Garcia to the UK for 99 years. The agreement is yet to be ratified by the UK Parliament. Calling the ratification a “big mistake”, Trump increased his pressure on the Labor government, leading to a foreign office minister, Hamish Falconer, telling the House of Commons that the treaty was being “paused for discussions with our American counterparts”.

Trump insisted that he needed the Deigo Garcia base, jointly operated by US and UK, in the war against Iran. He made a fervent appeal to his British counterparts through a Truth Social post earlier this month that “should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia… DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!”

The Diego Garcia issue is not limited to Iran conflict alone. It is spilling over into a regional conflagration in Western Indian Ocean too. In early February, Mohammed Muizzu, President of Maldives informed the parliament that his government had “submitted written representations to the United Kingdom on 8 November 2024 and 18 February 2026, formally objecting to the UK’s decision to cede ownership of Chagos to Mauritius”. He went on to argue that historical evidence proves that “Chagos forms part of the sovereignty of the Maldivian state” and insisted that “we are committed to reclaiming the lost maritime area”. Although under the radar at the moment, this issue has the potential to create serious tensions between Maldives and Mauritius.

This week also witnessed tensions peaking between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaza Muhammad Asif called it an “open war” as his country launched airstrikes on Kabul. Earlier, he also accused India of conniving with Afghanistan against it, an allegation rubbished by Indian officials.

Indian Ocean powers like India, Indonesia and others need to take these developments seriously. India supported Chagos agreement of transfer of sovereignty to Mauritius. Iran and Afghanistan have been its traditional allies. In the newly evolving conflict in its immediate neighbourhood, can it remain silent? Isn’t it time India took lead in building trans-Indian Ocean partnerships to proactively address these regional challenges instead of leaving the matters to the masters in the West or in China?