Trump may be wrong in law but he has upper hand in power game

(The article was originally published in Indian Express on January 10, 2026 as a part of Dr Madhav’s column titled ‘Ram Rajya’. Views expressed are personal.)

The new year began with the capture and deportation of Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, by the US special forces. The daring act of Donald Trump’s men caused shock and awe across the world, with commentators competing with each other over their interpretation of the newly invented “Donroe Doctrine”. There was widespread criticism of Trump’s action of literally kidnapping the president of a sovereign nation.

But, while anger and awe were witnessed across capitals of the world, Caracas, the Venezuelan capital, remained surprisingly silent through the last few days, with only the pro-Maduro faction protesting on January 4, the day after their leader’s capture. Otherwise only the armed gangs and private militias, a ubiquitous feature during Maduro’s rule, called Colectivos, were seen aggressively patrolling the roads on bikes and other vehicles and attacking houses of the opposition leaders and those suspected of collusion with the Americans.

What Trump regime did in Venezuela is against the international law. It once again highlighted the hollowness and helplessness of the global multilateral institutions like the United Nations and the International Court of Justice. It led to public square chatter that ‘what if China does the same in Taiwan or Russia in Ukraine’ etc. Although the fact that the head of a nation was picked up in an overnight operation dramatized the entire episode, we should not forget that such blatantly unilateral actions by the American regimes are not new. Its special forces invaded Grenada to overthrow a Communist regime in 1983. Six years later, they did the same in Panama in 1989 to capture another Left-wing dictator, Manuel Noreiga. When the regime of George Bush Jr went after Saddam Hussain in Iraq in 2003, it never sought or obtained the consent of the global multilateral bodies. Nor did they do any such thing before attacking Syria and Iran last year. They did not seek Pakistan’s approval before entering its airspace to neutralise Osama bin Laden in 2011. On every such occasion, while some in the world protested, many others cheered.

In the present case too, righteous indignation in the tv studios notwithstanding, people on the streets in Latin America, a continent with over 20 countries, seem divided with a majority opting to stay quiet. Reason behind this muted response for an act that should otherwise amount to a declaration of war is the evolving power dynamics in the resource-rich region. There is growing resentment against violence, drugs and insecurity among the people that is turning the popular tide in favour of the Conservative parties in the countries of the region. These dynamics need to be viewed not from any emotional prism but from a lens of the evolving geopolitics in the region.

In the last eight decades, Latin America has seen different waves. At a young age of 32, Fidel Castro, a student leader turned revolutionary, entered Havana, the Cuban capital and seized power in 1959, paving way for the rise of the first wave of left-wing dictators. Several countries including Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Grenada, Ecuador, El Salvador, Panama, Peru and Guatemala came under their influence. This led to the rise of anti-Americanism and Latin America inadvertently became a pawn in the Cold War games. Prompted by Cold War fears, Ronald Reagon and George Bush Sr regimes in 1980s and 90s tried to encourage democratic and anti-Communist leaders in some of the countries, leading to a democratisation wave.

But the new millennium once again witnessed the rise of a wave of left-leaning authoritarian dictatorships, euphemistically called the Pink Tide, bringing back authoritarian and dictatorial leaders in several of the Latin American nations that included Hugo Chevez in Venezuela, Lula da Silva in Brazil, Nestor Kirchner in Argentina, Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in Ecuador, Tabare Vazquez in Uruguay, and Michelle Bachelet in Chile. Some of these countries remain under dictatorships today. Maduro inherited it from Chevez in Venezuela while Lula retained it in Brazil. Mexico, Chile, and Columbia too have leftist authoritarians in power.

Last two decades saw Latin America becoming more lawless and restive due to the rise of dictatorships and the dangerous cartels of drugs and weapons they sponsored and promoted. The United Nations estimates that coca, the raw material for over 3700 tonnes of cocaine consumed in the world is produced in just three countries in Latin America – Bolivia, Peru and Columbia, while the entire region is its staging ground. Drug and weapons trade brought envious riches to the cartels and their political masters, while the violence and crime that ensued resulted in highest number of homicides with the Latin American population, that constitutes about 7 percent of the world, experiencing 30 percent homicides rates.

But something interesting is happening in the region now. A new wave of conservative parties and leaders is on the rise in several countries. After coming back to power in January last year, Trump turned focus on this region and launched a battle against drug cartels and illegal immigrants. His gesture of granting a bailout package of US$20 billion to the conservative regime in Argentina led by Javier Milei caused a major buzz in the region. Ecuador re-elected its conservative president while Bolivia saw the end of the Communist rule of two decades. In Brazil, Columbia, Costa Rica and Peru too the right-wing conservative parties are on the rise and in a striking distance to power. A regional poll annually conducted by a Chilian agency called Latinobarometro reported that in at least 18 countries the right-wing support reached highest levels in last two decades. According to its survey, the right-wing El Salvador president Nayib Bukele is the most popular leader in the region while Maduro, the left-wing dictator came the last.

For Trump, battle in Latin America appears to be both ideological and geopolitical. He may be wrong in the eyes of the international law, but so were several of his predecessors. But ideologically and geopolitically, he seems gaining upper hand in a number of countries in his Southern neighbourhood.